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GERMANY: 16 Dec Date For Confidence Vote In Bundestag

GERMANY
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Following earlier reports that 23 February 2025 is the most likely date for a snap federal election, it now appears that the confidence vote required to set in motion the removal of the gov't and the calling of snap elections will take place on Monday 16 December. 

  • Under Germany's 'Basic Law', it is the gov't that must call a confidence vote in itself to trigger the dissolution of the Bundestag and snap elections. The opposition can only call a 'constructive confidence vote', which requires their own chancellor candidate to be able to command a majority in the chamber in order to oust the incumbent.
  • The Social Democrat-Green minority gov't of Chancellor Olaf Scholz will fall considerably short of a majority (see chart below), meaning President Frank-Walter Steinmeier can dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days. Freidrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would likely only be able to rely on the support of his allies in Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Free Democrats (formerly part of the governing coalition) thereby falling well short of the majority required to oust Scholz on the opposition's terms. 

Chart 1. Bundestag, Seats

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Following earlier reports that 23 February 2025 is the most likely date for a snap federal election, it now appears that the confidence vote required to set in motion the removal of the gov't and the calling of snap elections will take place on Monday 16 December. 

  • Under Germany's 'Basic Law', it is the gov't that must call a confidence vote in itself to trigger the dissolution of the Bundestag and snap elections. The opposition can only call a 'constructive confidence vote', which requires their own chancellor candidate to be able to command a majority in the chamber in order to oust the incumbent.
  • The Social Democrat-Green minority gov't of Chancellor Olaf Scholz will fall considerably short of a majority (see chart below), meaning President Frank-Walter Steinmeier can dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days. Freidrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would likely only be able to rely on the support of his allies in Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Free Democrats (formerly part of the governing coalition) thereby falling well short of the majority required to oust Scholz on the opposition's terms. 

Chart 1. Bundestag, Seats

Keep reading...Show less