Germany August Trades Rangebound

German August power is trading rangebound today as losses in European emissions allowances are weighing on the contract while European gas is struggling to find a direction this morning. Contracts further out the curve are seeing steeper losses, tracking EU carbon allowances moves.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 3.5% at 42.67 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.1% at 72.35 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.7% at 68.51 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.3% at 32.18 EUR/MWh
• TTF is flat on Tuesday having eased back in later day trading on Monday on stable fundamentals and a restocking of gas offsetting any potential LNG supply concerns from Freeport and potential Asian LNG demand amid an ongoing heatwave in Japan.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower today, extending yesterday’s losses to the lowest since 2 July, after an initial increase following the results of the French election. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• In Germany, combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 2.35GW to 11.15GW during base load on 10-16 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 16.95GW-27.22GW during peak load on 10-18 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 64.74GW on Tuesday and of 64.91GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability was down to 68% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, down from 70% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• The 1.31GW Nogent 1 reactor is offline for one day until 9 July 22:00CET in an unplanned halt. Output had been reduced in a forced halt in the previous days.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a peak of 50.51GW on Tuesday and of 51.44GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested a downward revision in temperatures. Mean temperatures are forecast to remain above normal until 12 July, when they fall below until 14 July to say broadly in line with the average. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above normal from 16 July onwards.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.28GW-3.86GW during base load on 10-18 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 6.24GW-8.59GW during peak load on 10-18 July according to SpotRenewables.