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GERMANY: CDU In Pole Position As Scholz Confirmed As SPD Candidate

GERMANY
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Opinion polling ahead of the early federal election, likely to take place on 23 Feb, continues to show a fragmented party political landscape that could see lengthy coalition negotiations required after the vote. 

  • On 25 Nov, it was confirmed that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will serve as the chancellor candidate for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). The news was widely expected after Defence Minister Boris Pistorius posted a video late last week saying that he was not seeking the party's nomination. Some within the SPD had called for Scholz to step aside given that some polls had shown Pistorius as the most popular politician in Germany, while Scholz polled as the least popular.
  • Barring any major late changes in the campaign, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) looks set to emerge as the largest force in the Bundestag and in pole position to lead the next gov't. The question will be, what parties could it work with?
  • The pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) continue to poll just below the 5% threshold. The FDP would be the preferred partner for the CDU. However, the other parties in the 'traffic light' coalition (SPD & Greens) may be reluctant to work with the FDP again after bitter disagreements led to the gov'ts collapse.
  • On 22 Nov, in the eastern state of Thuringia, the CDU, SPD and far-left nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) presented a coalition agreement to the state parliament. While the so-called 'blackberry' coalition has been enforced in Thuringia due to lack of other options, the repetition of such an agreement is extremely unlikely at the federal level post-election, with the CDU much more inclined to work with the Greens than BSW. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

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Opinion polling ahead of the early federal election, likely to take place on 23 Feb, continues to show a fragmented party political landscape that could see lengthy coalition negotiations required after the vote. 

  • On 25 Nov, it was confirmed that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will serve as the chancellor candidate for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). The news was widely expected after Defence Minister Boris Pistorius posted a video late last week saying that he was not seeking the party's nomination. Some within the SPD had called for Scholz to step aside given that some polls had shown Pistorius as the most popular politician in Germany, while Scholz polled as the least popular.
  • Barring any major late changes in the campaign, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) looks set to emerge as the largest force in the Bundestag and in pole position to lead the next gov't. The question will be, what parties could it work with?
  • The pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) continue to poll just below the 5% threshold. The FDP would be the preferred partner for the CDU. However, the other parties in the 'traffic light' coalition (SPD & Greens) may be reluctant to work with the FDP again after bitter disagreements led to the gov'ts collapse.
  • On 22 Nov, in the eastern state of Thuringia, the CDU, SPD and far-left nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) presented a coalition agreement to the state parliament. While the so-called 'blackberry' coalition has been enforced in Thuringia due to lack of other options, the repetition of such an agreement is extremely unlikely at the federal level post-election, with the CDU much more inclined to work with the Greens than BSW. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less