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POWER: Germany Continues to Trade at Premium to France, May Sustain for 20 Jan

POWER
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Day-ahead prices in both Germany and France declined, driven by the typically lower power demand expected over the weekend in both countries. This offset potential gains from reduced wind output. Germany continued to maintain a premium over France and may continue to trade higher for the 20 January delivery, due to a lower wind load factor expected compared to the latter.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €134.15/MWh from €146.32/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €131.34/MWh from €142.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €2.81/MWh premium from a €3.48/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 3.21GW on Saturday during base load and to 4.08GW on Sunday during base load, down from 6.61GW on Friday.
  • The forecast for wind output has been revised down next week over 20-22 January by between 0.422-2.25GW to be at 4.02-4.6GW. However, it will pick up sharply over 23-25 January to be between 13.4-30.66GW during base-load hours according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.65GW on Saturday and to 48.64GW on Sunday, compared with 59.92GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to remain firm at 0.5C on Saturday and rise to 0.8C on Sunday, compared with 0.5C on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then rise on 20 January (Mon) at 59.69GW – likely supporting spot prices.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to decline to 1.18GW during base load on Saturday before dropping to 1.16GW on Sunday, compared with 1.26GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be between 9-19% load factors over 20-21 January (Mon- Tue) – which could see French delivery costs settling at a discount to the latter.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to drop 69.84GW on Saturday before dropping further to 68.79GW on Sunday, compared with 73.77GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to fall to 0.3C on Saturday and to -0.45C on Sunday, compared with 1.75C on Friday.
  • Demand will then be at 74.71GW on 20 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Friday morning, unchanged from Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg
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Day-ahead prices in both Germany and France declined, driven by the typically lower power demand expected over the weekend in both countries. This offset potential gains from reduced wind output. Germany continued to maintain a premium over France and may continue to trade higher for the 20 January delivery, due to a lower wind load factor expected compared to the latter.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €134.15/MWh from €146.32/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €131.34/MWh from €142.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €2.81/MWh premium from a €3.48/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 3.21GW on Saturday during base load and to 4.08GW on Sunday during base load, down from 6.61GW on Friday.
  • The forecast for wind output has been revised down next week over 20-22 January by between 0.422-2.25GW to be at 4.02-4.6GW. However, it will pick up sharply over 23-25 January to be between 13.4-30.66GW during base-load hours according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.65GW on Saturday and to 48.64GW on Sunday, compared with 59.92GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to remain firm at 0.5C on Saturday and rise to 0.8C on Sunday, compared with 0.5C on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then rise on 20 January (Mon) at 59.69GW – likely supporting spot prices.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to decline to 1.18GW during base load on Saturday before dropping to 1.16GW on Sunday, compared with 1.26GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be between 9-19% load factors over 20-21 January (Mon- Tue) – which could see French delivery costs settling at a discount to the latter.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to drop 69.84GW on Saturday before dropping further to 68.79GW on Sunday, compared with 73.77GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to fall to 0.3C on Saturday and to -0.45C on Sunday, compared with 1.75C on Friday.
  • Demand will then be at 74.71GW on 20 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Friday morning, unchanged from Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg