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GERMANY: SPD Denies AfD Brandenburg Win, But Problems Not Over For Federal Gov't

GERMANY
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The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) were able to hold off the challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in state elections in Brandenburg held on 22 September. Opinion polling had shown a surge in support for the SPD in the last days of the campaign, as supporters of other moderate parties shifted to the SPD in an effort to stop the AfD coming in first. 

  • Preliminary results show the SPD in first place with 32 out of 88 seats in the regional Landtag, ahead of the AfD on 30 seats. The far-left nationalist Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) came in third with 14 seats on 13.5% of the vote. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had a disappointing election, coming in fourth place with 12 seats. For the environmentalist Greens, far-left Die Linke and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) the result was nothing short of catastrophic. The Greens and Linke each lost all 10 seats after falling below the 5% threshold, while the FDP's party list vote share fell below 1%.
  • The SPD ran a campaign focused on popular Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz conspicuous by his absence in campaign material. As such,the result should not be viewed as a public endorsement of Scholz, even if it lifts some of the short-term pressure on the chancellor.
  • The fractures in the federal SPD-Green-FDP coalition remain evident, while the continued strengthening of extreme parties of the right and left will continue to make coalition-building difficult. 
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The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) were able to hold off the challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in state elections in Brandenburg held on 22 September. Opinion polling had shown a surge in support for the SPD in the last days of the campaign, as supporters of other moderate parties shifted to the SPD in an effort to stop the AfD coming in first. 

  • Preliminary results show the SPD in first place with 32 out of 88 seats in the regional Landtag, ahead of the AfD on 30 seats. The far-left nationalist Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) came in third with 14 seats on 13.5% of the vote. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had a disappointing election, coming in fourth place with 12 seats. For the environmentalist Greens, far-left Die Linke and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) the result was nothing short of catastrophic. The Greens and Linke each lost all 10 seats after falling below the 5% threshold, while the FDP's party list vote share fell below 1%.
  • The SPD ran a campaign focused on popular Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz conspicuous by his absence in campaign material. As such,the result should not be viewed as a public endorsement of Scholz, even if it lifts some of the short-term pressure on the chancellor.
  • The fractures in the federal SPD-Green-FDP coalition remain evident, while the continued strengthening of extreme parties of the right and left will continue to make coalition-building difficult.