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GfK Consumer Confidence Edges Up, Consumers Remain Wary
GERMANY JUN GFK CONSUMER CONF -24.2 (FCST -24.0); MAY -25.8r
- German consumer confidence strengthened by a further 1.6 points to -24.2 in GfK's forward-looking June indicator. This was only marginally softer than anticipated and represents an eighth month of improvements.
- Cooling German CPI and higher wage expectations underpinned the uptick in income expectations, yet the propensity to buy and economic expectations were weaker in the June index. This implies that German consumers are reluctant to spend due to prevailing uncertainty.
- Despite recent improvements, the index remains below Spring 2020 lockdown levels and in deeply pessimistic territory. As such, GfK continues to forecast a negligible contribution from private consumption to German GDP in 2023.
- This is in line with the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, which project that the German economy will come close to stalling at +0.2% in 2023, rebounding in 2024 to +1.4% when consumption and investment recover.
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