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Gilt outperforms ahead of Central Bank decisions

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund drifted lower on the Bund cash open, following car sales in Europe rising 17% in November.
  • Markets have since reversed course, and have bounced off their session lows.
  • Not really seen a clear driver for the push back higher in Bund, given that the Euribor strip remains in the red.
  • Looks like Gilt is helping underpin Europe.
  • Seems that some desk are positioning for a Dovish BoE, given that Gilt is up 83 ticks and the SONIA strip is in the green.
  • Peripheral spreads are mixed against the German 10yr, Italy is 3.9bps wider, while Greece is 3.4bps tighter.
  • The SNB hiked its rate by 50bps to 1% as expected, and Norges Bank by 25bps to 2.75%, also as expected.
  • US Treasuries are trading within their overnight ranges, and in the green across the longer end.
  • The pull back in Bund, as reversed some of the Tnote/Bund tightening, with the US/German spread sitting 1.5bp wider at the time of typing.
  • Looking ahead, the only notable data left for the session is the US Retail Sales, but before the release, the main focus will be on the BoE and ECB rate decisions, when 50bps hike is expected by both CBs.
  • ECB Lagarde will hold her press conference, while for the UK, there is no press conference in a non-MPR month.
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