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Gilt Week Ahead

  • Brexit talks will be the dominant theme in UK markets this week with the ninth official round of negotiations due to kick off tomorrow and scheduled to culminate in a meeting of the chief negotiators on Friday beginning at 11:00BST. After some more upbeat comments towards the end of last week (the first for some time) there have been a few mixed reports in the weekend press. Note that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that a deal will need to be reached by the European Summit of 15 October in order for it to be passed in time for the 31 December end of the transition period. If a deal isn't reached by 15 October, there is still a possibility a "no deal" outcome can be achieved but it becomes much more difficult to get it ratified by the UK, European and European national parliaments in time to be passed into law.
  • This week will also see the Internal Market bill that seeks to override parts of the Withdrawal Agreement move to the "report stage" on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the third reading and final vote in the Commons which will also likely take place on Tuesday before the bill is handed over to the Lords.
  • It is a quieter week on the data and speaker front. We are due to receive the second estimate of GDP on Wednesday and the final manufacturing PMI print on Thursday. It will be interesting to see whether the PMI is revised lower given the continued rise in Covid-19 cases as this may affect any late survey submissions more than those who submitted their answers early. We are also due to hear from BOE's Haldane three times this week.
  • Note that over the weekend, external MPC member Silvana Tenreyro described evidence from other countries on negative rates as "encouraging" noting that "There has been almost full pass-through of negative rates into lending rates in most countries….Banks adapted well – their profitability increased with negative rates, largely because impairments and loss provisions decreased with the boost to activity and the increase in asset prices."
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