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Gilt Week Ahead

UK
  • It's a big week for UK markets with the Bank of England MPC due to meet. Markets are more than fully pricing a 15bp hike on Thursday to 0.25% (with some market participants looking for a larger hike). Economists are generally more cautious with none of the previews that we have read so far looking for a hike larger than 15bp, and indeed in general sell-side analysts are split between whether the first hike will be this week or in December (the vast majority expect one hike in 2021). Markets, meanwhile priced in an even faster rate hike path last week and are now close to fully pricing Bank Rate at 1.25% by the middle of 2022, a pace that would see the Bank Rate hiked at 5 out of the next 6 meetings. In contrast, markets are only pricing 1-2 Fed hikes in the same time period and not even pricing 20bp of ECB deposit rate hikes.
  • Furthermore, this week will see the biggest week of gilt supply at least until the next fiscal year. GBP7-9bln of gilts are due to be sold through three auctions (depending on PAOF takeup). Given the larger than expected remit change there are no other weeks with more than one issuance operation (auction or syndication) this fiscal year.
  • For the full document click here.
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
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