US SEP SERVICES PMI 55.2 (FLASH 55.4, AUG 55.7)

UK SEP SERVICES PMI 52.4 (FLASH 52.8, AUG 53.7)

FRANCE SEP SERVICES PMI 49.6 (FLASH 48.3, AUG 55.0)

MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Held As Energy, Wages Push Up Prices

MNI BRIEF: NBP Keeps Key Interest rates unchanged

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Ease As CBRT Holds

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE +55 BCF TO 3,547 BCF SEP 27 WK

MNI: US AUG FACTORY ORDERS -0.2%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS -0.1%

MNI: US ISM SEP SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 54.9

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

GILTS: Outperformance Holds Post-Bailey, Off Session Highs

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilt outperformance remains evident after BoE Governor Bailey opened the door to more activist rate cuts, if the inflation data allows.

  • Gilt futures trade as high 98.53 before fading back to 98.30 with wider core global FI markets under pressure and some questioning the degree of commitment to swifter cuts in Bailey’s comments.
  • The bearish technical threat remains.
  • Yesterday’s low (97.97) provides initial support, while bulls really need to overcome the Oct 1 high (99.47) to start turning the technical tide more in their favour.
  • Yields 5bp lower to 1bp higher, curve twist steepening
  • 10-Year gilt/Bunds back below 190bp, narrowing by 5bp from cycle wides registered on Wednesday.
  • We still don’t think that the idea of 50bp BoE cuts is warranted at this stage.
  • The market agrees with our view, with odds of sequential, as opposed to upsized, cuts rising this morning.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 25bp of easing for November, 42bp of cuts through December and 122.5bp of cuts through June ’25.
  • SONIA futures are 1.0-8.5 firmer on the day, back from early session highs.
  • U.S. data and Fedspeak headlines the macro calendar today, while the next UK risk event of note comes in the form of tomorrow’s appearance from BoE chief economist Pill.
194 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Gilt outperformance remains evident after BoE Governor Bailey opened the door to more activist rate cuts, if the inflation data allows.

  • Gilt futures trade as high 98.53 before fading back to 98.30 with wider core global FI markets under pressure and some questioning the degree of commitment to swifter cuts in Bailey’s comments.
  • The bearish technical threat remains.
  • Yesterday’s low (97.97) provides initial support, while bulls really need to overcome the Oct 1 high (99.47) to start turning the technical tide more in their favour.
  • Yields 5bp lower to 1bp higher, curve twist steepening
  • 10-Year gilt/Bunds back below 190bp, narrowing by 5bp from cycle wides registered on Wednesday.
  • We still don’t think that the idea of 50bp BoE cuts is warranted at this stage.
  • The market agrees with our view, with odds of sequential, as opposed to upsized, cuts rising this morning.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 25bp of easing for November, 42bp of cuts through December and 122.5bp of cuts through June ’25.
  • SONIA futures are 1.0-8.5 firmer on the day, back from early session highs.
  • U.S. data and Fedspeak headlines the macro calendar today, while the next UK risk event of note comes in the form of tomorrow’s appearance from BoE chief economist Pill.