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Gilts the big movers; Powell still to come

BONDS
  • Gilts have been the biggest movers today following another upside surprise to UK inflation (both core and headline) this morning. Market pricing for tomorrow's meeting is now around 33bp (from 29bp yesterday and an intraday peak of almost 37bp on the open today) while terminal pricing has moved from 139bp in February 2024 at yesterday's close, hitting a peak over 160bp today and we now trade around 147bp. 2-year gilt yields have followed a similar pattern and are up almost 7bp at writing with 2s10s gilts (which was already the most inverted since 2000) inverting further this morning.
  • Gilts had led USTs and EGBs lower but those moves have largely reversed.
  • Focus now switches to Powell's testimony later today.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1 today at 113-09 with 10y UST yields up 0.2bp at 3.726% and 2y yields up 1.1bp at 4.699%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.01 today at 133.78 with 10y Bund yields down -0.6bp at 2.396% and Schatz yields up 0.4bp at 3.101%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.57 today at 952.20 with 10y yields up 3.6bp at 4.368% and 2y yields up 6.5bp at 5.001%.
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