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GILTS: Underperform Bunds Ahead of 10-year Supply

GILTS

Gilt futures are -10 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement at 98.59, not seeing any positive spillover from the lower-than-expected Spanish flash HICP print in Europe.

  • Resistance to watch remains at 98.93 (Jul 18 and 29 high) and 99.23 (Jun 21 high). Clearance of both levels would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.
  • Gilt yields are generally little changed across the curve.
  • Impending 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt supply (GBP3.75bln total) may be weighing in the run-up to the 1000BST bidding deadline.
  • A reminder that yesterday, Chancellor Reeves’ address confirmed the date for the UK Budget for October 30 (in line with our expectations), while also outlining a GBP22bln fiscal gap in 2024/2025 departmental spending (broadly in line with analyst estimates we had seen).
  • Overnight, the BRC shop price index printed at 0.2% M/M (vs 0.0% cons, 0.2% prior). 
  • External macro events are likely to drive UK price action until Thursday’s BoE meeting, for which our preview will be released later today.
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegion
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegion

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