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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
The Netherlands Centraal Planbureau (CPB) reported that global trade volumes continue to deteriorate. In December they fell 0.9% m/m, the third consecutive decline, driven by weak emerging market exports. With the full extent of global tightening not yet felt, there is likely to be a further deterioration in trade flows and output over H1 2023. Metals prices and the Baltic Freight Index are signalling further global trade and IP weakness at the start of 2023.
- Global trade momentum is now -8.1% on a 3-month annualised basis, signalling further weakness ahead. Exports fell 1.2% m/m, the third consecutive monthly fall and down 2.8% y/y, with emerging market exports underperforming at -3.6% m/m and -7.2% y/y compared with +0.2% m/m and -0.4% y/y for OECD countries. EM export growth should improve into 2023 with the reopening of China but there will continue to be headwinds from slower global demand.
- Global IP also recorded its third consecutive monthly fall declining 0.2% m/m to be up only 0.2% y/y. It is also showing negative and deteriorating momentum.
- Global trade prices continued to rise in December, increasing 1.6% m/m to be +3.2% y/y. Non-energy raw material prices rose 1.4% m/m but are down 9.6% y/y while energy prices are off of their recent peaks, they rose 2.8% m/m in December after declining 1.5% m/m the previous month and are still up 21.6% y/y. But both series have negative 3-month momentum.
Global export growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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