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MNI UK Inflation Insight: Downside Surprise to BOE, Less so to Consensus

  • Both headline CPI and services CPI surprised the consensus to the downside by a tenth (although core CPI surprised to the upside by a tenth). The main surprises to the consensus were in the volatile restaurants and hotels category and also a larger-than-expected fall in food prices. However, compared to the Bank of England’s forecasts there was a broader downside surprise (a 3 tenths downside surprise to services CPI).
  • We look through some of the key drivers of the print and the key surprises to consensus.
  • Given that services CPI was 3 tenths weaker than the BOE expected this looks as though it was a must have been a broad-based downside surprise to the Bank. However, versus consensus the volatile overnight accommodation category could potentially be reversed next month – there is still more disinflation in food prices but that alone is not really enough to change the narrative. This should increase the chance of a cut around May next year - but again, probably isn't enough of a downward surprise to see much chance of an earlier cut get any significant pricing. We are also likely to see further inversion throughout the curve.
  • We also summarise over 10 sell side views and include a CPI chart pack.
For the full PDF see:

MNI UK Inflation Labour Insight - November 2023 Release.pdf

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Inflation InsightHomepageMarkets

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