MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: EZ GDP, Inflation To The Fore

April goes out with a bang with a packed data schedule, heavy with French, Italian and Eurozone GDP and April flash inflation data. The afternoon sees both US personal income and spending, Canadian GDP and the Chicago PMI in the spotlight.

Inflation in the Eurozone appears to be steadying in the headline prints, as energy price growth slows somewhat. Core inflation continues to accelerate, underlining hawkish shifts in ECB rhetoric in recent weeks.

French GDP & Consumer Spending (0630 BST) / Inflation (0745 BST)

French Q1 2022 GDP is seen slowing to +0.3% q/q, down from +0.7% q/q seen in Q4. A -0.2% m/m contraction in March consumer spending is expected, slowing from +0.8% in Feb as consumers feel the squeeze of inflationary pressures in France.

Following Germany’s 0.2pp surprise uptick to +7.8% y/y. French harmonised inflation is expected to hold steady at a milder +5.1% y/y in the April flash print. A small expansion of +0.2% m/m, slowing from +1.6% m/m in April is expected.

Italian GDP (0900 BST) / Inflation (1000 BST)

Italian Q1 2022 GDP is seen slowing to -0.2% q/q, 0.8pp, weaker than the previous quarter. HICP for April is estimated at +6.5% y/y, a 0.3pp step down from March.

Eurozone GDP / Flash HICP (1000 BST)

Eurozone Q1 2022 GDP is expected to have grown at +0.3% q/q, the same as Q4 2021.

The Eurozone preliminary flash inflation print for April is projected to see a +7.5% y/y acceleration, a touch faster than April's revised 7.4% gain. On the month a slowdown to +0.5% m/m is expected (down from +2.4% m/m in March,) whilst underlying core inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3pp to +3.2% y/y.

A slowdown in the headline print is hoped for in upcoming months, as states implement strategies to shield consumers from further energy and fuel price growth.

Upside surprises would be uncomfortable news ahead of the ECB's June meeting, with policymaker rhetoric already putting the option of an interest rate hike on the table for July.

US Personal Income and Spending (1330 BST)

Personal income is expected to tick down 0.1pp to +0.4% in March, relatively similar to figures seen over the last six months, whilst personal spending is seen accelerating by 0.4pp to 0.6% m/m growth. Spending remains subdued as consumer confidence begins to decline due to the inflation squeeze.

Canada GDP (13330 BST)

Canadian GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% m/m in the February print, 0.6pp stronger than in January's 0.2% print.

MNI Chicago PMI (1445 BST)

The April Chicago PMI print will highlight the current health of the US manufacturing industry, following divergences in other regional PMI indicators as growth outlooks begin to differ on the back US inflation hitting 8.5% y/y in March.

Optimism is waning with consensus expecting a small decline to 62.0, as both inflationary pressures and worsened global supply chain conditions dampen manufacturing growth.

With the BOE and Fed in their blackout periods ahead of next week’s meetings, there are no key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
29/04/2022	0530/0730	**		FR	Consumer Spending
29/04/2022	0530/0730	***		FR	GDP (p)
29/04/2022	0600/0700	*		UK	Nationwide House Price Index
29/04/2022	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
29/04/2022	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
29/04/2022	0700/0900	***		ES	GDP (p)
29/04/2022	0800/1000	***		DE	GDP (p)
29/04/2022	0800/1000	***		IT	GDP (p)
29/04/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
29/04/2022	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
29/04/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
29/04/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	GDP preliminary flash est.
29/04/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
29/04/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
29/04/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Employment Cost Index
29/04/2022	1345/0945	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
29/04/2022	1400/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
29/04/2022	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)