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With a big day in data ahead, focus will be on UK GDP, French and Spanish inflation followed by US retail and IP. In the late afternoon the U. Michigan preliminary data will offer insight on the latest US inflation expectations.
UK Data (0700 GMT)
Monthly GDP: UK GDP is seen higher on the month in the November print, reaching 0.4% growth following nearly stalling in October at 0.1% growth. The latest reading saw production, mining and manufacturing contract, whilst services expanded on the back of the health sector. UK monthly GDP has roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels and a marked rebound in the auto industry suggests an upside risk to this month’s forecast.
Industrial Production: UK industrial production is expected to slow further in November, declining for the seventh consecutive month to 0.5% y/y, down from 1.4% y/y. On the month, a slight recovery is forecasted at 0.2% m/m, following a contraction of 0.6% m/m on October.
Manufacturing: Manufacturing is also projected to continue declining from the April high, with analysts looking for a contraction to -0.3% y/y in November, from 1.3% y/y in October. A small recovery to 0.2% m/m is however expected.
UK Trade Balance: The UK trade deficit is seen expanding by shy of £500m to -£2500m in November, running a deficit for the sixth consecutive month. High fuel prices, Brexit-induced EU trade reductions, supply chain disruptions have made UK trade data particularly volatile over the past two years.
French Inflation to Stabilise (0745 GMT)
French inflation is anticipated to have stabilised at 2.8% y/y in December, a 13-year high reading for France. On the month, headline inflation is expected to weaken to 0.2% m/m.
Spanish Inflation to Surge (0800 GMT)
Final headline inflation for Spain is projected to remain in line with the flash numbers at the near 30-year high of 6.7% y/y for December, jumping from 5.5% y/y in November.
On the month, inflation is set to grow 1.3% m/m, up from 0.3% m/m in November, with surging electricity and food prices exerting upward pressure.
US Retail Sales and IP Looking Weaker (1330 GMT)
US retail and industrial production numbers are seen weakening in today’s data, with advance retail sales to dampen to -0.1% m/m in December from 0.3% expansion in November.
Analysts are forecasting industrial production to step down to 0.2% m/m from 0.5% m/m in November.
Michigan Inflation Expectations Stable (1500 GMT)
The Michigan sentiment index is expected to moderate to 70.0 in the January prelim estimate, weakening by 0.6 points from December.
Following Wednesday’s US headline inflation hitting a 40-year high of 7.0% y/y, markets will be watching the Michigan inflation expectations. The one-year inflation expectation is forecasted to stabilise at 4.8%, unchanged from the December reading.
Today's key policy maker appearances include ECB President Lagarde, Philadelphia Fed's President Harker and New York Fed's President Williams (links on calendar below).
|14/01/2022||0130/1230||**||AU||Lending Finance Details|
|14/01/2022||0700/0700||***||UK||Index of Production|
|14/01/2022||0700/0700||**||UK||Output in the Construction Industry|
|14/01/2022||0700/0700||**||UK||Index of Services|
|14/01/2022||1315/1415||EU||ECB Lagarde speech at COSAC|
|14/01/2022||1330/0830||**||US||Import/export Price Index|
|14/01/2022||1500/1000||***||US||University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p)|
|14/01/2022||1500/1000||US||Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker|
|14/01/2022||1600/1100||US||New York Fed's John Williams|
|14/01/2022||1700/1200||CA||BOC releases climate risk paper|