MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Canadian Unemployment in Focus

Friday’s data releases of interest are mainly Canada/US-based, with the Canadian labour report and US wholesale trade and inventories due in the afternoon.

The European data is from February, which will act more as a benchmark for March data where soaring fuel prices and worsened supply-chain disruptions from the Ukraine war will be evident.

Spanish Industrial Production (0800 BST)

Spanish IP is expected to see a slight recovery to +0.5% growth in February, from the -0.1% m/m contraction in January which was owing to a decline in capital goods production.

Norway GDP (1000 BST)

Norway’s mainland GDP is anticipated to have recovered to +1.0% m/m growth in February, following the -0.9% contraction of January. This would be the strongest expansion since September 2021. In January a substantial fall in total exports and petroleum activities caused growth to slow, however, a reversal is likely in upcoming months as fuel sourcing shifts away from Russia.

Canadian Labour Force Survey (1330 BST)

Canadian unemployment is projected to inch down 0.1pp further to 5.4% in the March report, on par with the all-time low seen in May 2019. A softer net change in employment of around +80k is expected, following +336.6k seen in February.

The average hourly wage rate of permanent workers will provide insight into inflationary spillovers on wage prices. Analysts are pricing a +2.7% y/y increase in March, which is 0.5pp softer than February.

February inflation jumped to +5.7% y/y in February, a 1991 high which coupled with a strong labour market underpins expectations of a 50bp hike at the April 13 meeting.

US Wholesale Trade / Inventories (1500 BST)

February wholesale trade sales are seen slowing to +0.8% m/m from +4.0% m/m in January. The flash 2.1% m/m growth in wholesale inventories is likely to be confirmed today, which is up from +1.1% m/m in January.

Slowing trade and increasing inventories imply a February slowdown for the sector, as firms continuing to stockpile due to global supply shortages and disruptions.

The March print will provide insight into the industry’s reactions to concerns regarding the Ukraine war.

Canadian unemployment below pre-pandemic levels:

Source: Statistics Canada

There is only one key policymaker appearance due today: the ECB’s Fabio Panetta’s opening speech at the IESE Business School Conference.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
08/04/2022	0001/0101	**		UK	IHS Markit/REC Jobs Report
08/04/2022	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
08/04/2022	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
08/04/2022	0800/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
08/04/2022	1115/1315			EU	ECB Panetta at IESE Business School Conference
08/04/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
08/04/2022	1400/1000	**		US	Wholesale Trade
08/04/2022	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE