Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
A slew of Central Bank decisions will dominate headlines today, with the BOJ, CBRT, ECB and SARB all due.
Bank of Japan
Despite inflationary pressures building and the Yen seeing stark depreciation, the BOJ left the policy rate at -0.100% as anticipated. Governor Kuroda will give his post-meeting presser around 0700 BST.
Turkey Central Bank (1200 BST)
The CBRT are again firmly expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 14.00% in July in the seventh consecutive unchanged decision at the bank, which seemingly continues to operate under considerable political influence. Inflation in the region remains acute, soaring to +78.62% y/y in June. See MNI's comprehensive preview here.
European Central Bank (1315 BST)
A 25bp hike is the consensus expectation for the ECB this month, taking the main refinancing rate to 0.250%. A 50bp hike cannot be ruled out. The ECB is expected to reiterate that it anticipates a gradual but sustained path for further increases in policy rates, alongside being data dependent, while not providing any further specific rate guidance for now. Markets will also be looking for further detail regarding the new anti-fragmentation tool. Our comprehensive preview is available here.
Recessionary risks remain heightened at present due to uncertainties regarding Russian gas supplies following maintenance and heading into the Winter.
South Africa Reserve Bank (1415 BST)
The SARB is expected to hike by 50bp to 5.25%, after June saw another hot CPI print. Headline CPI jumped 0.9pp to +7.4% y/y, the highest since May 2009 (8.0%). The chance of a 75bp hike cannot be ruled out after June inflation beat expectations. This would put rates at 5.50% and mark the largest rate rise at the bank since 2002. Click here for the MNI in-depth preview.
US Leading Index (1500 BST)
In non-central bank news today, the US leading indicator should see a further decline to -0.6% in June. This follows -0.4% in May, on the back of a dive in equities markets, slowing housing construction and consumer expectations dipping to the lowest since Feb 2021. The index remains significantly higher than long-term averages.
Source: MNI / Bloomberg
The BOE’s Huw Pill will be making an appearance today. Otherwise press conferences following rate decisions are due for Japan (0700 BST), the ECB (1345BST with President Lagarde’s podcast at 1615 BST) and SARB (1400 BST).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 21/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/07/2022 | 0645/0845 | ** |  | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21/07/2022 | 0800/0900 | | UK | BOE Pill Intro at BOE & ECB Conference | |
| 21/07/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 21/07/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** |  | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 21/07/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 21/07/2022 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 21/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 21/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 21/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 21/07/2022 | 1245/1445 | | EU | ECB Press Conference | |
| 21/07/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 21/07/2022 | 1515/1715 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Presents Policy Decision via Podcast | |
| 21/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 21/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 21/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.