Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s data schedule sees Swiss, Italian and Spanish trade balance releases in the morning. Some other noteworthy highlights for the day include the Turkish Central Bank’s interest rate decision, followed by US labour data and the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Japan will publish headline inflation figures in the night.
Turkey Interest Rate to Remain Unchanged (1100 GMT)
The Turkish benchmark rate is seen remaining at 14.00% for the one-week repo rate, continuing a pause of their counterintuitive easing cycle which began in September and induced the strong depreciation of the Lira.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan implemented the interest-rate cutting with the purpose of lowering inflation through lower borrowing costs, an approach not supported by conventional macroeconomic theory. The move to hold rates steady in this rate decision is likely as a result of the uncertain political landscape surrounding the Ukraine-Russia boarder.
US Initial Jobless Claims Slowing (1330 GMT)
Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reduce slightly by 4k to 219k for the week ending February 12 from 223k in the week prior. This would be a continuation of the four-week downward trajectory which began the week ending January 16. This data highlights the waning effects of the Omicron variant on the labour market, following a major peak of over one million cases recorded in one day on January 18.
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index to Falter (1330 GMT)
Analysts are expecting the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index to dip to 20.0 in February, following a January reading of 23.2, which saw a recovery from a 12-month low in December. The index remains relatively volatile, with last months upswing induced by recoveries across general activity, new orders and shipments.
Falling covid cases, along with evidence for easing in supply chain disruptions offer signals of a renewed upwards trend.
Japan Headline Inflation Inching Higher (2330 GMT)
Japanese national CPI will likely rise modestly in the January print, following a reading of +0.8% y/y in December which saw the fourth consecutive month of price growth. Surging fuel costs followed by food, housing and culture/recreation costs all generated upwards pressure. On the other hand, core inflation is seen dampening to +0.3% Y/Y for January, down from +0.5% Y/Y in December. Inflation remains mainly driven by rising energy costs.
On Tuesday the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that CPI approaching the 2% target will be necessary before the discussion surrounding the exit of easy policy.
Key policymaker appearances on the schedule for today include the ECB’s President Lagarde, Schnabel and Lane at various events. The MNI Webcast with the ECB’s Phillip R. Lane discussing the Eurozone and ECB policy will be the key highlight, for which the registration link is in the calendar below. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and Cleveland Fed’s Mester will be attending events in the evening.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 17/02/2022 | 0700/0800 |  | EU | ECB Schnabel discussion with SPD | |
| 17/02/2022 | 1100/0600 | * |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 17/02/2022 | - | | EU | ECB Lagarde at G20 CB Governors Meeting | |
| 17/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 17/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | housing starts |
| 17/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 17/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 17/02/2022 | 1400/1500 | | EU | ECB Lane on MNI Webcast on ECB Policy | |
| 17/02/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 17/02/2022 | 1600/1100 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 17/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 17/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 17/02/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond |
| 17/02/2022 | 2200/1700 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 18/02/2022 | 2330/0830 | *** |  | JP | CPI |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.