Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wednesday’s schedule focus is inflation data, with final German CPI due, followed by Brazil and the US. Markets will be closely watching whether the US has managed to pass peak inflation.
German CPI (Final) (0700 BST)
April headline inflation will likely be confirmed at +0.8% m/m and the 1981 high of +7.4% y/y for April. April was a 0.1pp uptick from March largely due to energy prices and food inflation.
Energy prices saw the first signs of easing in the flash release, stepping down to 35.3% from 39.5%. HICP is to be confirmed at +7.8% y/y, up 0.2pp from March.
Brazil CPI (1300 BST)
Brazilian inflation joins the CPI docket for today, the largest LatAm economy anticipating a 0.8pp acceleration to +12.07% y/y headline inflation, following March inflation hitting a 2003 high. Energy, food, housing and healthcare prices all saw substantial growth. On the month, a 0.6pp slowdown to 1.01% is expected.
The BCB hiked 100bps to 12.75% last week and is expected to deliver their final 50-75bp hike in June.
US CPI (1330 BST)
April US headline inflation is forecast to decelerate to +8.1% y/y, down from +8.5% y/y in March. This would confirm that the US has passed peak CPI. On the month inflation is seen easing to a mild +0.2% /m, 1pp slower than March. A fall in petrol prices and used car prices will be the downwards drivers.
The consensus is looking for a 0.5pp slowdown in core inflation to +6.0% y/y. Another 50bp hike is expected in June, with multiple consecutive months of decelerating inflation required to see the Fed shift 50bp hikes against a backdrop of an extremely tight labour market and wage inflation.
Source: US BLS
Today sees the ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel and President Lagarde speaking, followed by Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic in the evening.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 11/05/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | HICP (f) |
| 11/05/2022 | 0600/0800 |  | EU | ECB Elderson Fireside Chat with Sonja Gibbs | |
| 11/05/2022 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at 30th anniversary of Banka Slovenije | |
| 11/05/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 11/05/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 11/05/2022 | 1220/1420 | | EU | ECB Schnabel Keynote Speech at Austrian National Bank | |
| 11/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 11/05/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 11/05/2022 | 1600/1200 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 11/05/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/05/2022 | 1800/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.