Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s early data will focus on German factory orders and preliminary inflation numbers, UK final PMIs and US trade balance and jobless claims.
German Factory Orders to Recover (0700 GMT)
Analysts see German industrial orders making a substantial recovery on the monthly reading for November, expected to grow to 2.2% m/m, up from the -6.9% plunge in October, which saw foreign orders dip considerably.
UK Services and Composite PMI weaken (0930 GMT)
UK services and composite PMI readings are expected to remain in line with flash estimates of 53.2 for both, dipping from 58.5 and 57.6 readings respectively in November.
Downside risks could be substantial following yesterday’s Eurozone readings which almost all came in weaker than consensus.
Germany Prelim CPI Sees Inflation Dampening (1300 GMT)
Annual headline inflation is forecasted to show signs of recovery in Germany’s preliminary December data, with analysts pricing CPI to dampen to 5.1% y/y and HICP to 5.6% y/y from 5.2% y/y and 6.0% y/y respectively. Monthly headline CPI is projected to increase to 0.4% m/m from November’s reading of -0.2% which saw the first (and likely only) deflationary movement of 2021, however analysts are pricing downside risks on monthly inflation estimates. The monthly HICP reading is projected to dampen marginally to 0.2% from 0.3%.
US Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance (1330 GMT)
Jobless claims in the US are set to continue to decline from the previous reading of 198k down to 195k for the final week of 2021 due to economic recovery and labour shortages continuing to tighten the labour market.
November’s trade deficit is predicted to grow to $80.9bln in November, increasing from $67.1bln in October back towards September 2021’s record high which saw temporarily hampered petroleum exports, a weaker services surplus and high demand for goods imports.
Today’s key policymaker appearances include speeches by San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 06/01/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI |
| 06/01/2022 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | IHS Markit Final China Services PMI |
| 06/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | manufacturing orders |
| 06/01/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 06/01/2022 | 1300/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 06/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 06/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | trade balance |
| 06/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 06/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | factory new orders |
| 06/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 06/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 06/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 06/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 06/01/2022 | 1815/1315 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.