MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: March FOMC Minutes Due

Wednesday’s key event will be the release of the FOMC minutes from the March hike meeting, due after the London markets close.

German Factory Orders (0700 BST)

February’s factory orders are expected to slow substantially from January, with analysts seeing a 2.0pp drop to a contractive -0.2% m/m and a 1.9pp slowdown to +5.4% y/y. The strong January growth was on the back of foreign demand growth. It’s worth noting that year-on-year February readings can appear more expansive due to base effects of the previous Winter lockdown.

Germany & UK Construction PMIs (0830 / 0930 BST)

Construction PMIs are projected to dampen in March due to soaring energy prices and further pressure on supply chains. The war in Ukraine saw nosedives in business confidence in yesterday’s services data, which is likely to show up just as much in today’s construction figures. The UK is seeing construction softening 1.1 points to 58.0 points in March. A similar movement is expected in Germany following February’s 2-year high PMI of 54.9, whereby the housing sector boosted the index.

Eurozone PPI (1000 BST)

Eurozone producer price growth will likely quicken to around +31.7% y/y (Jan +30.6%) at a fresh high for the bloc, however, a month-on-month deceleration to +1.2% m/m (Jan +5.2%) could offer signs of some easing price pressures in February.

This data is unlikely to be market moving as it is pre-Ukraine invasion and will hence be more of a benchmark for upcoming inflationary shocks associated with energy prices soaring further and the substantial effects of business and consumer sentiment slumps on aggregate demand.

March flash headline inflation hit +7.5% y/y in March, a 1.6pp jump from February and uncomfortable news for the ECB as they observe slides in sentiment across the region as the outlook on the Ukraine war remains bleak.

FOMC Meeting Minutes (1900 BST)

With OIS markets pricing in a cumulative ~219bp of Fed tightening for the rest of 2022, today’s FOMC minutes of the March 25bp kick-off meeting will provide insight into the hawkish shifts in rhetoric seen last month and details on the balance sheet run-off.

Key policymaker appearances due today are ECB-heavy, with VP Luis de Guindos, Exec Board member Fabio Panetta and Schnabel as well as Chief Economist Philip Lane on the schedule. Later in the afternoon Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker is due to speak. Where available, links to events can be found in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
06/04/2022	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
06/04/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	Factory orders
06/04/2022	0700/0900			EU	ECB VP de Guindos speaks
06/04/2022	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/04/2022	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/04/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
06/04/2022	0900/1100			EU	ECB Schnabel Panel Moderation at ECB/EC Conference
06/04/2022	0900/1100			EU	ECB Exec Board member Fabio Panetta speech
06/04/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
06/04/2022	1145/1345			EU	ECB Philip Lane panel appearance
06/04/2022	1330/0930			US	Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker
06/04/2022	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
06/04/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
06/04/2022	1800/1400	*		US	FOMC Minutes