Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday's data sees further European IP numbers, Italian retail and French trade in the Eurozone, followed by the US NFIB index for small businesses and Redbook retail sales. At 2pm markets will be watching Poland's interest rate decision.
Swedish / Spanish IP to Weaken (0700/0800 GMT)
Sweden and Spain are the next due IP data releases, following disappointing recent data showing contractions for Germany and France. Sweden saw softer growth of +0.5% m/m and +4.2% y/y in November, which is likely to follow trend and dampen moderately for December. Spanish industrial production is forecasted to contract to -1.0% m/m in December, following a surprisingly strong November recovery of +4.5% m/m, the strongest since July 2020 and up +4.8% on the year, following a jump in consumer goods production.
Italian Retail Sales seen Falling (0900 GMT)
Analysts are seeing Italian retail sales continuing to contract on the month for December, albeit edging upwards to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m. December readings are expected to reflect stronger pandemic-related restrictions associated with the Omicron wave, especially following the November boost of +12.5% y/y which reflects the region-wide trend of earlier Xmas shopping in 2021.
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to Dampen (1100 GMT)
NFIB small business optimism edged upwards to 98.9 in November, with small businesses citing inflation as their key concern, followed by staffing problems associated with tight labour market conditions and covid-related absences, with almost half of respondents seeing employee compensation rise. In January, the index is projected to dampen to 97.5.
Redbook Retail Sales to Recover (1355 GMT)
Redbook retail sales are likely to continue to recover for the week ending Feb 5, following three weeks of slow and steady increases to 15.8% y/y for the week prior, following weakened demand due to the initial Omicron wave surge.
Polski Interest Rate +50bp (1400 GMT)
The National Bank of Poland will announce its latest policy decision. Markets are pricing a hike of 50bp to 2.75%, which is seen as remaining well behind the curve. Upside risks for a fifth consecutive hike are substantial in this meeting, as the Polish economy grapples with a 22-year high December inflation rate of +8.6% y/y.
There are no key policymaker appearances on the schedule.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 08/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production |
| 08/02/2022 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Current Account |
| 08/02/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/02/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 08/02/2022 | 0900/1000 | * |  | IT | Retail Sales |
| 08/02/2022 | 1100/0600 | ** |  | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 08/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 08/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 08/02/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 08/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 08/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 08/02/2022 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.