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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wednesday’s data points of interest include German trade and Italian IP in the morning, followed by US wholesale inventories and Russian CPI in the afternoon.
German Trade Balance to Weaken (0700 GMT)
The German trade balance is seen dipping in December to 11.0bln from 11.6bln in November, then the lowest level in over a year and a half. Both export and import growth is projected to have contracted in December, with exports expected to weaken to -0.5% m/m from +1.7% m/m in November, following two months of strong growth. Imports are expected to contract to -2.1% m/m in December from +3.3% m/m.
Italian IP to Slow (0900 GMT)
Italian industrial production is seen weakening in December, expected to slow to -0.7% m/m from +1.9% m/m in December. The annualised number is forecasted to dampen to +4.6% in December, down from +6.3% y/y in November. Substantial downside risks are expected, following unexpectedly strong contractions seen from Germany, France and Spain over the last few days.
US Wholesale Trade Recovery (1500 GMT)
The final print for US wholesale inventories is projected to remain in line with the flash estimate at +2.1% m/m in December. This is slightly higher than +1.4% m/m in November and remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels, which saw frequent dips into contraction. The recent upturn in US inventories support some easing of supply bottlenecks ahead of January’s inflation print tomorrow.
Russia Inflation seen Climbing (1600 GMT)
Consensus is projecting Russian headline inflation continued to surge in January, predicted to edge upwards to +8.9% y/y, up from the almost six-year high of +8.4 y/y in December. On the month, a rise of +0.8% is forecasted, up from +0.6% m/m in December. This is likely to be the eight consecutive month of CPI growth and with it likely to be at over double the CBR’s target rate will be highly relevant to the upcoming policy rate decision on Friday, where markets are pricing a +100bp hike to bring the interest rate to 9.50%. The combination of high food cost inflation and falling real disposable household incomes paints a pessimistic outlook.
Today’s key policymaker appearances are the BOE’s Pill on the UK monetary policy outlook, followed appearances by Fed Governor Bowman, Cleveland Fed’s President Mester and the BOC’s Governor Macklem. Where available links to events are in calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 09/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 09/02/2022 | 0900/1000 | * |  | IT | Industrial Production |
| 09/02/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 09/02/2022 | 1310/1310 |  | UK | BOE Pill at UK Monetary Policy outlook conference | |
| 09/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/02/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 09/02/2022 | 1530/1030 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 09/02/2022 | 1700/1200 |  | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speaks to Chamber of Commerce | |
| 09/02/2022 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 09/02/2022 | 1700/1200 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 09/02/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.