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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The coming week kicks off with only a couple of second-tier US data points on the schedule. The week ahead in data will be closely watched as markets watch the first economic impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine come to light.
US Wholesale Inventories (1330 GMT)
US wholesale inventories are projected to rise 1.2% m/m in the February flash estimate, up from the softer +0.8% m/m seen in January. After high inventory growth in Q4 last year due to economic slowdown, January and February have seen softer growth underscoring the US’ strong rebound.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (1330 GMT)
The Dallas Fed manufacturing index is expected to dampen four points to 10.0 in March after a strong February rebound. Increased inflation expectations and some worsening of supply chain disruptions are likely to be key downwards drivers.
Some upcoming highlights for the week ahead:
Tuesday - US Consumer Confidence (1500 GMT): Consumer confidence data will be closely eyed following surprisingly strong PMI readings last week which largely shrugged off effects of the Ukraine war, unlike in the UK and Eurozone. Estimates are looking for a 3.5-point fall to 107.0.
Wednesday - Germany CPI (1300): Following the Spanish flash and German state CPIs in the morning, Germany’s first estimate for March inflation is set to continue to soar, estimated at +6.6% y/y in the harmonized print, jumping 1.1pp on February.
Friday - Eurozone Flash Inflation (1000 GMT): The euro area March HICP estimate is seen up 0.7pp at +6.5% y/y and growing to +1.6% m/m. Following the March ECB taper acceleration, the ECB has been repositioning itself to tackle inflation. The Eurozone is seen bearing the brunt of energy and oil inflation from the Ukraine war and will be weighing up two-way risks of inflation and dampened growth outlooks ahead of the April meeting.
Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls (1330 GMT): The tight US labour market will likely see job growth slow around 200k to +475k as employers actively raise compensation to attract potential workers. With both headline and wage inflation growing, a 50bp hike is penciled in for the June FOMC meeting.
Today only one key policymaker appearance is on the schedule: the BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey. The link to the event can be found in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 28/03/2022 | 1100/1200 |  | UK | BOE Bailey in Conversation w. Guntram Wolff | |
| 28/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 28/03/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 28/03/2022 | 1430/1530 | | UK | DMO Consultation Gilt Issuance 2022/23 | |
| 28/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 28/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 28/03/2022 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 28/03/2022 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.