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Flash Inflation In-Line With Tracking; Services Remain Sticky

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone June flash headline printed in-line with MNI's tracking estimate of 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.6% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; 0.2% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.52% Y/Y and 0.21% M/M.

  • Core HICP came in a tenth higher than consensus, remaining at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons; 2.9% prior). On an unrounded basis, core was 2.86% Y/Y and 0.34% M/M.
  • Looking at the individual categories, services inflation remained sticky, as was expected at 4.1% Y/Y (the same level as May) although it was possibly boosted in June by the European football championships.
  • Non-energy industrial goods remained unchanged in Y/Y terms at 0.7% Y/Y - the first time it hasn't decline since February 2023, although this had been expected to continue to moderate.
  • While energy prices saw their expected slow down with sequential inflation falling 0.8% M/M, resulting in the Y/Y figure softening to 0.2% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior), this was broadly in line with expectations.
  • At a country level, annual HICP fell in 12 countries, rose in 7 countries, and was unchanged for the Greece.

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Eurozone June flash headline printed in-line with MNI's tracking estimate of 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.6% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; 0.2% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.52% Y/Y and 0.21% M/M.

  • Core HICP came in a tenth higher than consensus, remaining at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons; 2.9% prior). On an unrounded basis, core was 2.86% Y/Y and 0.34% M/M.
  • Looking at the individual categories, services inflation remained sticky, as was expected at 4.1% Y/Y (the same level as May) although it was possibly boosted in June by the European football championships.
  • Non-energy industrial goods remained unchanged in Y/Y terms at 0.7% Y/Y - the first time it hasn't decline since February 2023, although this had been expected to continue to moderate.
  • While energy prices saw their expected slow down with sequential inflation falling 0.8% M/M, resulting in the Y/Y figure softening to 0.2% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior), this was broadly in line with expectations.
  • At a country level, annual HICP fell in 12 countries, rose in 7 countries, and was unchanged for the Greece.