MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: US, German Sentiment Data Eyed

Tuesday's focus will be on sentiment indexes. Italian IP is due in the morning, followed by the German ZEW survey. The NFIB survey will highlight current outlooks in the US later in the morning.

Italian Industrial Production (0900 BST)

Italian IP will likely contract to -1.5% m/m in March, down 5.5pp from February. The March print will highlight worsened supply chains and soaring energy prices.

German ZEW Survey (1000 BST)

The May ZEW survey will highlight whether sentiment is beginning to recover in Germany, or sliding further since the onset of war in Ukraine. Last month saw more mild declines than initially anticipated.

Expectations are anticipated to fall a further 2.5 points to -43.5, a similar decline as seen in April. The current assessment index is expected to fall a further 4.2 points to -35, following the 9.4-point fall last month. Both indicators are currently hovering around March 2020 pandemic levels.

With inflation hitting a four-decade high of 7.4% in April, the cost-of-living crisis coupled with supply chain shocks of Chinese lockdowns and the Ukraine war sees pessimistic outlooks for the near future.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (1100 BST)

Analysts expect small business optimism to have moderated by 0.3 points to 92.9 in April, which would be the lowest reading since April 2020. Last month almost half of surveyed businesses were not expecting better business conditions in the next six months. Inflation, persistent supply chain disruptions and labour shortages remain the underlying downwards drivers.

NFIB (2019 - 2022):

Source: NFIB

Today’s key policymaker appearances are largely US Fed speakers, aside from the ECB’s Luis de Guindos’ speech. NY, Richmond, Cleveland and Minneapolis Fed representatives are on the schedule for today, as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Links to events are in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
10/05/2022	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
10/05/2022	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
10/05/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
10/05/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
10/05/2022	1000/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
10/05/2022	1140/0740			US	New York Fed's John Williams
10/05/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
10/05/2022	1315/0915			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
10/05/2022	1345/0945			US	Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
10/05/2022	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
10/05/2022	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
10/05/2022	1700/1300			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari and Governor Christopher Waller
10/05/2022	1720/1920			EU	ECB de Guindos at IESE Banking Industry Meeting
10/05/2022	1900/1500			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester