Global Oil Demand to Grow 1.2-1.3mbpd in 2024

Global oil demand is expected to grow slower this year by 1.2-1.3mbpd this year, IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said to Bloomberg.

• “This year we expect oil demand growth to be significantly weaker than last year. We expect an increase of 1.2-1.3mbpd, mainly because of the slowing down of the economic growth in China and also electrification of the transport system…this is on the demand side,” Birol said.
• “Chinese demand is weakening compared to last year for two reasons, one is that the Chinese economy is slower than last year and the second reason is the electrification of the transport sector, every second car sold in China is an electric car”, Birol said.
• “On the supply side, the growth coming from Americas, namely US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, this growth altogether is more than enough to meet the global oil demand growth”, he said.
• “In the absence of major geopolitical turmoil or major extreme weather events we would expect a comfortable oil market, a moderate price evolution throughout 2024”, he added, saying prices would stay around current levels in case of no such events.
• The supply growth in the Americas is also removing maneuver room for the countries that want to control oil production and consequently the prices, Birol added.
• “My concern is that if we see one or more major oil producing countries that are directly involved in the current crisis and in the escalation of the situation that will push the prices up”, he said.
• When asked about the compliance with the latest OPEC+ cuts he said: “There is a good discipline there if you look at the numbers.”
• Global oil demand would peak before 2030 because of the fast clean energy transition and the surge in electric cars, he said.