OIL
Global oil refining is projected to expand by 812k b/d in 2025, despite oversupply concerns due to the energy transition, BNEF said.
- There is likely to be divergences in refined product demand between developed and developing economies, leading to contrasting capacity developments.
- Capacity Additions are expected to add 1.8m b/d, driven by projects in APAC, the Middle East, and North America, maintaining growth seen in previous years.
- Furthermore, there are about 1m b/d of closures, mostly in North America and Europe, reflecting declining demand.
- The surplus between net refining capacity growth and the rise in call on refining in 2025 is 512k b/d.
- Trade routes ae set to be upended as refineries in WAF and Mexico ramp up, impacting gasoline producers in the Atlantic. MENA capacity additions could increase East-West distillate flows to Europe, BNEF said.
- Refining margins have potential for recovery due to loosening crude and tightening product balances.
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