GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ INFLATION, BOJ, FED, BOE AND US NFP

MONDAY/TUESDAY - EUROZONE FLASH OCTOBER INFLATION

The October round of flash Eurozone inflation data (Oct 30-31) is set to show a continued deceleration in both headline and core price pressures on an annual basis. Headline HICP is seen decelerating sharply to 3.1% from 4.3% in September. If confirmed, headline inflation will be at its lowest since August 2021 and below a third of its 10.7% peak. HICP is due to decelerate sharply Y/Y in 3 of the 4 largest Eurozone countries, with the exception of Spain. This deceleration in headline inflation in October will be due mostly to further declines in both food and energy prices, which in turn are on the back of high base effects from October 2022.

TUESDAY - BOJ DECISION

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Policy Board is scheduled to convene on October 30-31, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to hold a press conference following the release of the meeting statement on October 31. We anticipate that the BOJ will uphold its existing policies in the forthcoming announcement. This includes keeping the short-term interest rate at -0.1%. In a Reuters survey of economists conducted between October 17-25, 25 out of 28 economists expected no change in policy at the upcoming meeting, while the remaining three—Barclays, JP Morgan, and UBS—predicted that the BOJ would begin unwinding its accommodative stance.

WEDNESDAY - FED DECISION

The FOMC will leave rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive meeting on Nov 1. While economic activity data has been strong and inflation progress has arguably stalled since the September meeting, the Committee will maintain a cautious approach as it assesses the impact of tighter financial conditions and the lagged effects of past tightening. Powell’s press conference and the Statement will attempt to underpin market hike pricing which is slightly more dovish than the Fed’s previously signalled path. This will include maintaining a bias toward further tightening, though Powell has set a fairly high bar to further hikes.

THURSDAY - BOE DECISION

Thursday's MPC meeting is likely to see Bank Rate left on hold with markets pricing almost no chance of a hike at writing and a unanimous consensus of on hold from all of the sellside previews that we have read. There will be focus on the Bank's updated forecasts in its MPR and any change in forward guidance would likely be market moving (with no change expected here, either). The vote split is widely expected to be 6-3 (with new member Breeden expected to side with the doves in her first meeting and all other MPC members expected to vote for the same outcome as in September.

FRIDAY - US NFP

Landing shortly after the FOMC decision on Wednesday, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 180k in October having printed almost twice as strong as expected in September with 336k along with large upward revisions. There is however expected to be relatively limited correction to some of the more dovish aspects of last month’s report. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.8% for what would be its third month after a surprise jump higher in August at a level matching the median FOMC participant’s 4Q23 dot from the September SEP. AHE growth meanwhile is seen nudging a tenth higher to 0.3% after 0.21% M/M in Sept with average weekly hours worked unchanged at 34.4 for further consolidation of the return to pre-pandemic levels that has been seen since the summer.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
30/10/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
30/10/2023	0630/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
30/10/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
30/10/2023	0800/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/10/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
30/10/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
30/10/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
30/10/2023	0930/1030	***		DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
30/10/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/10/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
30/10/2023	1300/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
30/10/2023	1300/1400			EU	ECB's De Guindos speech at Leadership forum
30/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
30/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
30/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
30/10/2023	1930/1530			CA	BOC's Macklem testifies at House committee.
31/10/2023	2330/0830	*		JP	Labor Force Survey
31/10/2023	2350/0850	**		JP	Industrial production
31/10/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
31/10/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2023	0300/1200	***		JP	BOJ policy announcement
31/10/2023	0630/0730	***		FR	GDP (p)
31/10/2023	0630/0730	**		FR	Consumer Spending
31/10/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/10/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Import/Export Prices
31/10/2023	0730/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
31/10/2023	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
31/10/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
31/10/2023	0900/1000	***		IT	GDP (p)
31/10/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	GDP (p)
31/10/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
31/10/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
31/10/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
31/10/2023	1000/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/10/2023	1100/1200	**		IT	PPI
31/10/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Employment Cost Index
31/10/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
31/10/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
31/10/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
31/10/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
31/10/2023	1300/0900	**		US	MNI Chicago Report
31/10/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
31/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Housing Vacancies
31/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
31/10/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
31/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
01/11/2023	2200/0900	**		AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/11/2023	0030/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
01/11/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/11/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	S&P Global Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/11/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/11/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
01/11/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
01/11/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/11/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
01/11/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Treasury Quarterly Refunding
01/11/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/11/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/11/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
01/11/2023	1400/1000	***		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
01/11/2023	1400/1000	***		US	JOLTS quits Rate
01/11/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
01/11/2023	1800/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
01/11/2023	2015/1615			CA	BOC Governor testifies at Senate hearing
02/11/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
02/11/2023	0730/0830	***		CH	CPI
02/11/2023	0815/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2023	0845/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2023	0850/0950	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2023	0855/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
02/11/2023	0855/0955	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2023	0900/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
02/11/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2023	1100/1200			EU	ECB's Lane lectures on EZ monetary policy
02/11/2023	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
02/11/2023	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
02/11/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
02/11/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
02/11/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
02/11/2023	1230/1230			UK	MPR Press Conference
02/11/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
02/11/2023	1400/1400			UK	BOE DMP Survey
02/11/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
02/11/2023	1730/1830			EU	ECB's Schnabel presentation at Fed St Louis
03/11/2023	2200/0900	*		AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
03/11/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Retail trade quarterly
03/11/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
03/11/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
03/11/2023	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/11/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
03/11/2023	0900/0900			UK	BoE's Hauser speech at Watchers' conference
03/11/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
03/11/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
03/11/2023	-			UK	BoE APF Q3 Report
03/11/2023	1200/0800			US	Fed's Michael Barr
03/11/2023	1215/1215			UK	BoE's Pill MPR National Agency Briefing
03/11/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
03/11/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
03/11/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
03/11/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
03/11/2023	1600/1600			UK	BoE's Haskel panellist at Watchers' Conference
03/11/2023	1930/1530			US	Fed's Michael Barr