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Free AccessGLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ INFLATION, BOJ, FED, BOE AND US NFP
MONDAY/TUESDAY - EUROZONE FLASH OCTOBER INFLATION
The October round of flash Eurozone inflation data (Oct 30-31) is set to show a continued deceleration in both headline and core price pressures on an annual basis. Headline HICP is seen decelerating sharply to 3.1% from 4.3% in September. If confirmed, headline inflation will be at its lowest since August 2021 and below a third of its 10.7% peak. HICP is due to decelerate sharply Y/Y in 3 of the 4 largest Eurozone countries, with the exception of Spain. This deceleration in headline inflation in October will be due mostly to further declines in both food and energy prices, which in turn are on the back of high base effects from October 2022.
TUESDAY - BOJ DECISION
The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Policy Board is scheduled to convene on October 30-31, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to hold a press conference following the release of the meeting statement on October 31. We anticipate that the BOJ will uphold its existing policies in the forthcoming announcement. This includes keeping the short-term interest rate at -0.1%. In a Reuters survey of economists conducted between October 17-25, 25 out of 28 economists expected no change in policy at the upcoming meeting, while the remaining three—Barclays, JP Morgan, and UBS—predicted that the BOJ would begin unwinding its accommodative stance.
WEDNESDAY - FED DECISION
The FOMC will leave rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive meeting on Nov 1. While economic activity data has been strong and inflation progress has arguably stalled since the September meeting, the Committee will maintain a cautious approach as it assesses the impact of tighter financial conditions and the lagged effects of past tightening. Powell’s press conference and the Statement will attempt to underpin market hike pricing which is slightly more dovish than the Fed’s previously signalled path. This will include maintaining a bias toward further tightening, though Powell has set a fairly high bar to further hikes.
THURSDAY - BOE DECISION
Thursday's MPC meeting is likely to see Bank Rate left on hold with markets pricing almost no chance of a hike at writing and a unanimous consensus of on hold from all of the sellside previews that we have read. There will be focus on the Bank's updated forecasts in its MPR and any change in forward guidance would likely be market moving (with no change expected here, either). The vote split is widely expected to be 6-3 (with new member Breeden expected to side with the doves in her first meeting and all other MPC members expected to vote for the same outcome as in September.
FRIDAY - US NFP
Landing shortly after the FOMC decision on Wednesday, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 180k in October having printed almost twice as strong as expected in September with 336k along with large upward revisions. There is however expected to be relatively limited correction to some of the more dovish aspects of last month’s report. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.8% for what would be its third month after a surprise jump higher in August at a level matching the median FOMC participant’s 4Q23 dot from the September SEP. AHE growth meanwhile is seen nudging a tenth higher to 0.3% after 0.21% M/M in Sept with average weekly hours worked unchanged at 34.4 for further consolidation of the return to pre-pandemic levels that has been seen since the summer.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
30/10/2023 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade | |
30/10/2023 | 0630/0730 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
30/10/2023 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) | |
30/10/2023 | 0800/0900 | * | CH | KOF Economic Barometer | |
30/10/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI | |
30/10/2023 | 0930/0930 | ** | UK | BOE M4 | |
30/10/2023 | 0930/0930 | ** | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals | |
30/10/2023 | 0930/1030 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | |
30/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator | |
30/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | Saxony CPI | |
30/10/2023 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) | |
30/10/2023 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech at Leadership forum | ||
30/10/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey | |
30/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
30/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
30/10/2023 | 1930/1530 | CA | BOC's Macklem testifies at House committee. | ||
31/10/2023 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey | |
31/10/2023 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial production | |
31/10/2023 | 0001/0001 | * | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index | |
31/10/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI | |
31/10/2023 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI | |
31/10/2023 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ policy announcement | |
31/10/2023 | 0630/0730 | *** | FR | GDP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 0630/0730 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending | |
31/10/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales | |
31/10/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices | |
31/10/2023 | 0730/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales | |
31/10/2023 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI | |
31/10/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | GDP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q | |
31/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y | |
31/10/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) | |
31/10/2023 | 1100/1200 | ** | IT | PPI | |
31/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
31/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Employment Cost Index | |
31/10/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
31/10/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index | |
31/10/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index | |
31/10/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index | |
31/10/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | MNI Chicago Report | |
31/10/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence | |
31/10/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Housing Vacancies | |
31/10/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey | |
31/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill | |
31/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill | |
01/11/2023 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/11/2023 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals | |
01/11/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI | |
01/11/2023 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI | |
01/11/2023 | 0930/0930 | ** | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) | |
01/11/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
01/11/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
01/11/2023 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
01/11/2023 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report | |
01/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding | |
01/11/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Markit Manufacturing Index (final) | |
01/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index | |
01/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending | |
01/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
01/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate | |
01/11/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
01/11/2023 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement | |
01/11/2023 | 2015/1615 | CA | BOC Governor testifies at Senate hearing | ||
02/11/2023 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance | |
02/11/2023 | 0730/0830 | *** | CH | CPI | |
02/11/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
02/11/2023 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
02/11/2023 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
02/11/2023 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment | |
02/11/2023 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
02/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision | |
02/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
02/11/2023 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB's Lane lectures on EZ monetary policy | ||
02/11/2023 | 1200/1200 | *** | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
02/11/2023 | 1200/1200 | *** | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
02/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims | |
02/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
02/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity | |
02/11/2023 | 1230/1230 | UK | MPR Press Conference | ||
02/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders | |
02/11/2023 | 1400/1400 | UK | BOE DMP Survey | ||
02/11/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
02/11/2023 | 1730/1830 | EU | ECB's Schnabel presentation at Fed St Louis | ||
03/11/2023 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI | |
03/11/2023 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Retail trade quarterly | |
03/11/2023 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI | |
03/11/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance | |
03/11/2023 | 0700/0300 | * | TR | Turkey CPI | |
03/11/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production | |
03/11/2023 | 0900/0900 | UK | BoE's Hauser speech at Watchers' conference | ||
03/11/2023 | 0930/0930 | ** | UK | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) | |
03/11/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment | |
03/11/2023 | - | UK | BoE APF Q3 Report | ||
03/11/2023 | 1200/0800 | US | Fed's Michael Barr | ||
03/11/2023 | 1215/1215 | UK | BoE's Pill MPR National Agency Briefing | ||
03/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey | |
03/11/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report | |
03/11/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
03/11/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | |
03/11/2023 | 1600/1600 | UK | BoE's Haskel panellist at Watchers' Conference | ||
03/11/2023 | 1930/1530 | US | Fed's Michael Barr |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.