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GoC Curve Just Off Peak Inversion Ahead Of US/Canada Data

CANADA
  • Underperformance in Canadian rates to the US is equally evident in front-end GoCs, with 2Y yelds -3.5bps vs the -5.5bps for Treasuries.
  • With front rates seen peaking close to levels after the July BoC and front end GoCs only just off recent highs, the curve has re-flattened in recent days with 2s10s of -54bps only a few bps off pre US CPI fresh post 1990 lows.
  • There are multiple potential triggers from data ahead, starting at 0830ET with Canadian IPPI the local focus whilst hitting at the same time as US jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey. IPPI is expected to fall -0.8% M/M after CPI inflation was dragged by falling energy prices, with attention on signs of underlying strength away for energy.

Source: Bloomberg

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