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GoCs Hold Substantial Rally As Breakevens Slide

CANADA
  • GoC yields are currently down -27.5bps for the 2Y and -19bp for the 10Y following the BoC surprisingly hiking 50bp even though 75bp wasn’t a done deal either. It retained relatively hawkish language but added “this tightening phase will draw to a close. We are getting closer, but we aren’t there yet” with stagnant growth seen helping supply catch up with demand.
  • There are standout moves in various areas, with the 2YY at 3.87% down 44bps from Friday’s high of 4.31% prior to weakening US data.
  • Further, the 19bp decline in the 10YY is led by a 22bp slide in the breakeven, which at the current 1.86% would be the lowest close since Oct 3, 60bp lower than in the US compared to ~40bp pre-pandemic as the spread re-widens.

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