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GoCs Maintain Sizeable Cheapening, 10Y Supply Tomorrow

CANADA
  • GoCs have reversed some of their earlier losses but continue to hold a large cheapening post Victoria Day, with 2Y-10Y benchmark yields some 9.5 to 11bps higher since Friday’s close.
  • The 2Y leads the way after the sizeable steepening in the shorter rates curve with BAX 2023 inversion fully unwinding and currently on track for the first positive close in BAM3/Z3 (+0.04) since Mar 8 just as SVB issues first came to light. It sees the 2Y Can-US spread still relatively narrow at -22bps.
  • The sizeable move has come despite only mixed cost price pressures for IPPI/raw materials whilst the weekly Nanos consumer confidence index continued to trend higher for its highest since May’22.
  • 10Y supply headlines tomorrow’s CAD docket but with potential spillover from the FOMC minutes and of course any further debt talk headlines.
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