July 24, 2024 12:48 GMT
GoCs Rally With Treasuries Ahead Of BoC Decision
CANADA
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- Treasuries are leading front GoC yields lower with the BoC decision an hour away.
- As is now the norm, the twin statements for the rate decision and press conference will be released at 0945ET along with the Monetary Policy Report, before the press conference itself at 1030ET.
- 2Y GoC yields are 6bps lower on the day with curve steepening, 2s10s at -29bp (+2.5bp).
- The Can-US 2Y differential at -76bps is 2.5bp higher on the day courtesy of the new US 2Y benchmark. It’s off extremes, with lows of circa -90bps in the days after the BoC’s first cut in June, although remains depressed historically.
- BoC-dated OIS has ~22bp of cuts priced for today’s decision whilst we feel the cumulative ~38bp of cuts for the September meeting could be vulnerable today if the Bank gives any indication of a temporary pause.
- Preview: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65376/BOCPreviewJul2024.pdf
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