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GoCs Suggest Rate Expectations Can’t Go Much Higher?

CANADA
  • GoC yields have more than retraced a large spike driven by beats in both CPI and US retail sales before seasonality distortion questions arose in the latter and Blinken comments muddied things.
  • The average core measure rose 0.2pps from an upward revised 3.0% to 3.2% Y/Y (above the 1-3% target range). Further, every main component accelerated on the month in sequential terms bar shelter, which was +0.5% M/M after +0.6%.
  • Despite this, 2YY are 1bp lower since pre-release at 1.546%. Some of the initial flattening has been maintained however, with 2s10s sitting at 40bps, off late lows of 38bps (Nov-2020 lows).

Canada govt bonds, 2y (green), 10y (yellow) and spread (white)Source: Bloomberg

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