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GoCs Track Treasury Sell-Off, TD Reiterate Too Early For 2s10s Steepeners

CANADA
  • GoCs mostly track the sell-off in Tsys that started in early London trade and has been mostly one way ever since, with 2-10Y yields climbing 5-6bps, although early BAX trade sees a modest outperformance to SOFR futures with 2H24 contracts -0.07-0.08 vs -0.105-0.115.
  • TD have reiterated that it’s too early to position for 2s10s steepeners and expect the recent steepening to quickly run out of steam with limited prospects for BoC rate cuts in the next six months. They also look for GoCs to underperform Tsys through 2H23.
  • BMO on renewed disruption from BC ports strike: “Current estimates suggest it could take until the fall to work through the backlog caused by the initial strike, pointing to a headwind for Canada's economy in Q3.” Intermodal rail traffic fell sharply in the first week of the labor strike, with the four-week moving average more than 20% down on a year ago, with implications for sectors involved in the trade of household and consumer products (electronics, fashion, appliances, motor vehicles and parts) as well as for a number of commodities (potash, canola, wood pulp).
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