Goldman On The Potential Timing Of The Calling Of Senate Results In Georgia

Re: the Georgia Senate run-offs, Goldman Sachs note that "assuming that the vote counting occurs as outlined above, how long it takes for media outlets to call the results will depend on how close the races are and which candidates lead. If the margin is greater than few tenths of a point in either direction with most of the ballots counted, news organizations are likely to call the race reasonably quickly, potentially by the early hours of Wednesday (Jan. 6). If the margin is narrower, it might depend on which candidates lead. A very close race with a slim Republican lead is likely to take longer for news organizations to call, as the late-counted ballots (i.e., late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots) have in the past leaned more Democratic. On the other hand, if a Democratic candidate holds a lead of a few tenths of point by the early hours of Wednesday (Jan. 6), media outlets might be more likely to call the race based on the assumption that residual ballots would not change the outcome. This morning (Jan. 5) Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger indicated the Senate races were likely to be called Wednesday (Jan. 6) morning. Regardless of when networks call the races, the results will not become official until election officials certify the results, which under Georgia law must occur by Jan. 15."