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Goldman Raises Chinese Oil Demand Outlook

OIL

Three factors have contributed to weaker oil prices in recent months according to Goldman Sachs research.

  • The first is surprisingly strong production from Russia as the EU ban on refined products gets underway.
  • Second, the collapse in natural gas prices incentivizes switching back to gas from oil.
  • Third, macro investors are expressing the broader disinflation theme and producer hedging is likely driving some selling.
  • Goldmans forecasting places Chinese oil demand at 15.5mb/d in mid-January versus 14.5mb/d in late November.
  • The bank has raised its 2023Q4 and 2024Q4 China demand forecasts to 16.0 and 16.6mb/d respectively, 0.4 and 0.7mb/d above its prior estimates.


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