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Goldman Raises Peak Oil Demand Forecast

OIL
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Goldman Sachs has raised its global oil demand forecast for 2030 and expects consumption to peak by 2034.

  • It cites a potential slowdown in electric vehicle adoption keeping refineries running higher into the end of the decade.
  • The bank raised its 2030 crude oil demand forecast to 108.5 mn bpd from 106 mn bpd and expects demand to peak at 110 million bpd in 2034, followed by a long plateau till 2040.
  • "We expect peak oil demand to occur by 2034 at 110 million bpd; subsequently, we project a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decline of 0.3% till 2040," Goldman said.
  • "We are more constructive on middle distillates (diesel/jet fuel) over gasoline, as the incremental supply growth for middle distillates lags behind demand growth more significantly over 2024-27, partly due to the later demand peak we expect for middle distillates (mid-2030s) than gasoline (2028)," it added.
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Goldman Sachs has raised its global oil demand forecast for 2030 and expects consumption to peak by 2034.

  • It cites a potential slowdown in electric vehicle adoption keeping refineries running higher into the end of the decade.
  • The bank raised its 2030 crude oil demand forecast to 108.5 mn bpd from 106 mn bpd and expects demand to peak at 110 million bpd in 2034, followed by a long plateau till 2040.
  • "We expect peak oil demand to occur by 2034 at 110 million bpd; subsequently, we project a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decline of 0.3% till 2040," Goldman said.
  • "We are more constructive on middle distillates (diesel/jet fuel) over gasoline, as the incremental supply growth for middle distillates lags behind demand growth more significantly over 2024-27, partly due to the later demand peak we expect for middle distillates (mid-2030s) than gasoline (2028)," it added.