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Goldman Sachs: A New Liftoff Strategy

EUR

Goldman Sachs note that "the ECB operationalized its new strategy framework last week with new guidelines on the conditions for liftoff. The commitment to keep rates on hold until inflation is projected to be on target well before the end of the projection horizon is more dovish than prior ECB communications that mostly focused on convergence by the end of the projection horizon. However, the changes also seemed to confirm that at least for now the focus of the review is on future policy, leaning on forward guidance and persistence, without making explicit changes to the outlook for asset purchases. Meanwhile, the robust flash PMIs provided further evidence that the Euro area recovery remains on track, while the rise of the Delta variant poses risks to the reopening momentum. In this environment, we still think EUR/USD should remain range-bound in the near term, possibly with a downward bias if U.S. employment and inflation data remain firm, before turning higher into year-end as global growth steadies and the ECB prepares to adjust its asset purchases again."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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