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Goldman Sachs Are More Sanguine vs. Markets on ZAR

SOUTH AFRICA
  • On South Africa, GS see significant risks, but are more sanguine than the market.
  • They see the bearish sentiment on South African assets as due to interrelated concerns over weak growth, deteriorating power supply, and fiscal sustainability.
  • Valuations are now unusually weak, implying that the market is already discounting significant bad news. As such, they think it more likely that markets will stabilise close to current levels, with moderate upside to the Rand in the short term (their FX strat team 3-month forecast is 18.75) and more considerable upside to bonds in the medium term.

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