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Goldman Sachs: Base Case For Similar Moves In Coming BanRep Meetings

COLOMBIA
  • The larger but still relatively moderate 50bp rate cut (vs. two previous 25bp moves) found a middle ground for a central bank that is willing to dial back the level of policy restraint at a faster pace, while maintaining the cautious approach to avoid derailing the disinflation process.
  • Although the Board did not pre-commit to delivering similar moves in upcoming meetings, this remains Goldman Sach’s base case. As the current sources of uncertainty continue to dissipate, GS believe that follow-up 50bp cuts will allow the central bank to normalise further the very restrictive policy stance at a reasonable pace.
  • Goldman Sachs continue to view the hurdle for an imminent acceleration in the pace of cuts as high. For one, while several inflation expectations measures have declined, they are not necessarily consistent with the Board’s belief that inflation will converge to target during H1 2025. For another, core services inflation has steadily firmed since October, and continues to track at near-peak levels. In turn, GS view the unexpectedly strong January real activity print as lessening the urgency to deliver larger cuts to stimulate the economy.
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