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Goldman Sachs Expect 2023 GDP To Be Upgraded In Quarterly Report

MEXICO
  • Goldman Sachs expects marginal changes from the previous Banxico QIR, with convergence to the 3.0% inflation target likely expected in the fourth quarter 2024.
  • They also expect that the central bank may update the overall growth-inflation balance of risks given that for the quarterly report, the central bank has a larger set of data than it did when the MPC last met: 1H Aug inflation release and the revised real GDP figures for 2Q2023. GS do not expect any adjustments to the forward guidance.
  • Regarding growth, they expect that the previous 2023 real GDP growth forecast of 1.7% to 2.9% (midpoint 2.3%) to be upgraded (particularly the lower bound of the interval).
  • Regarding the monetary policy outlook, particular attention will be given to the characterization of the balance of risks to inflation (which they expect to remain biased to the upside) and the list and ranking order of both upside and downside risks to inflation and growth.
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