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Goldman Sachs Expect GDP to Grow by an Above-Consensus 3.3% Q/Q

TURKEY
Q2 GDP data is on the docket tomorrow morning (0800BST/1000 local). According to the median of the Bloomberg survey, the economy grew by 3.1% y/y and by 2.3% q/q.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast GDP to grow by 4.6% y/y and by 3.3% q/q on a sequential basis. They say the acceleration in Q2 will be driven both by the recovery in activity from the impact of the earthquake in Q1 and by continued fiscal and monetary expansion on the quarter given the elections in May.
  • Policy, both monetary and fiscal, has shifted significantly tighter since then, and Goldman Sachs expect the Turkish economy to enter a recession in H2; their forecasts for H2 are well below consensus. For that reason, they believe that the current account will be close to balance for H2-2023 and will cease to be a drag on reserves.
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