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Goldman Sachs Expect More Dovish CEE-3 Policy Mix Than Implied by Market Pricing

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Goldman Sachs expect CEEMEA annual growth to be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2023, given the combination of healthy sequential momentum; an improved global backdrop; and more supportive domestic policy (for most).
  • They expect Hungary rates to reach 6.00% by mid-year (6.50% previously) but have pushed back the timing of the next/first rate cut in Poland (from March to Q3) and South Africa (from March to May).
  • They note that in the CEE-3, core inflation dynamics have weakened significantly and the risk of inflation persistence has diminished. GS therefore expect policy rates in Hungary, Czechia and Poland to decline by more than implied by current end-2024 market pricing.
  • In Turkey, monetary and fiscal policies have tightened substantially since the May 2023 elections and GS expect this to result in below-consensus inflation, improved external balances, and a slower rate of TRY depreciation (than the forwards).
  • Goldman expect inflation in South Africa to fall below consensus expectations in 2024, given weak domestic price pressures, but the timing of the decline remains uncertain and dependent on supply shocks and exchange rate developments.
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