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Free AccessGoldman Sachs: Expect RRR Cut In Coming Days
In lieu of Wednesday’s State Council meeting Goldman Sachs “view this meeting as the response to increased growth downward pressures due to widened Covid curbs on the back of the rising local COVID case numbers.”
- “The hint of RRR cuts is consistent with our expectation that policymakers could deliver a 25bps RRR cut before yearend to promote economic growth.”
- “The discussion of banks cutting profits for the benefit of lowering funding cost of SMEs implies policymakers might consider interest rate cuts as well, though according to this statement, it might not be broad interest rate cuts but rather targeted interest rate reduction through implicit guidance on banks or lowering SME relending rates.”
- “The disappointing October credit data amid sluggish credit demand, and the large amount of maturing Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) in the next few months might have also contributed to the decision of RRR cut. We expect PBOC to deliver the RRR cut in the next few days after the State Council's hint.”
- “Despite these supportive measures, we continue to forecast weak activity growth in the rest of the year and the first half of next year, based on our expectation that China would only begin to reopen in Q2 2023.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.