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SOUTH AFRICA: Goldman Sachs Forecast Another 25bp Cut in March Following SARB

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

With a more benign inflation outlook than the SARB’s in both the near and medium term, Goldman Sachs forecast a 25bp rate cut in March, followed by a pause and cuts at alternating meetings down to a 6.50% terminal rate, although they view risks to this forecast as tilted towards more back-loaded easing. In particular, Goldman Sachs think that the bar for incrementally hawkish developments – especially on the external front affecting the rand – tipping the MPC into a hold at the next meeting is set relatively low.

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With a more benign inflation outlook than the SARB’s in both the near and medium term, Goldman Sachs forecast a 25bp rate cut in March, followed by a pause and cuts at alternating meetings down to a 6.50% terminal rate, although they view risks to this forecast as tilted towards more back-loaded easing. In particular, Goldman Sachs think that the bar for incrementally hawkish developments – especially on the external front affecting the rand – tipping the MPC into a hold at the next meeting is set relatively low.