Goldman Sachs: FX Hedges For Global Risk-Off: Case + & - EM HY

Goldman Sachs note that "with equity markets at or through pre-coronavirus highs, we examine the case for and against going long USD versus EM high-yielding currencies as a hedge against an unexpected drawdown in global risk. On the positive side, EM high-yielding currencies have shown a large and reliable response to daily moves in risk sentiment over the past year, and long USD/EM HY hedges have outperformed during exceptionally sharp equity drawdowns over the past 20 years, including the coronacrisis drawdown in 2020Q1. On the negative side, EM high-yielders have seen significant positioning pullbacks in 2020, and some feature deep undervaluation, limited retracement of YTD selloffs, meaningful shorting costs and, in some cases, constructive longer-run outlooks based on solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Overall, while we think they can participate in a broad Dollar down move over the longer run, going long USD versus BRL, ZAR, and COP may be useful options as moderate-cost, high-'beta' hedges for a sharp drawdown in global risk."