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FOREX

Sentiment Turns Risk On

US TSYS

Flat Start

MYR

Ringgit Slightly Softer After Holidays

CHINA

CNH Gains For First Day In Four

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Goldman Sachs remain "structurally bearish on the USD and expect USD/Asia to ease by around 4% on a 12-month horizon. We have refreshed our FX forecasts for NJA and now expect USD/CNY at 6.30, 6.20 and 6.15 on a 3-, 6- and 12-month horizon relative to 6.40, 6.30 and 6.30 previously. The fundamentals for the CNY remain constructive on the back of export strength, FDI, rate differentials and portfolio flows. That said, we think the pace of appreciation should ease after the PBoC hiked reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits, signalling that it was uncomfortable with the recent rapid pace of appreciation."

  • "Within NJA low-yielders, we are most bullish on the KRW, driven by a strong current account outlook, a more hawkish BoK and a likely more conducive equity flow picture ahead. Our Korean economists have just revised up their current account forecast to US$82bn and US$94bn for 2021 and 2022, driven by high demand for semi-conductors and ship-building. We maintain our USD/KRW forecasts at 1070, 1050 and 1020 on a 3-, 6- and 12-month horizon. We expect the MYR to outperform, underpinned by commodities, global growth, reasonable yield (3%) and light positioning."
  • "We remain most bearish on THB. Despite the recent mass vaccination drive, we think some travel restrictions (by visiting countries) will remain in place for most of this year which should temper the pace of the tourism rebound. We think the current account could slip into deficit this year and expect THB to underperform. We forecast USD/THB at 31.5, 31 and 30 on a 3-, 6- and 12-month view."
  • "Among the NJA high-yielders, we remain constructive on the INR. New virus cases have moderated and the BoP picture remains positive for the year, where we expect the current account deficit to be more than offset by FDI and equity inflows. Spot INR appreciation may be limited after the recent appreciation as the RBI is likely to remain active, but we think INR remains an attractive carry-to-vol currency. We maintain our USD/INR forecast at 72.5, 72 and 71 for a 3-, 6- and 12-month horizon."
  • "Steady U.S. yields should, at the margin, be positive for IDR assets. However, we think IDR yields still look rich vs. historical sensitivities, so we have revised up our USD/IDR forecasts slightly to 14,100, 14,000 and 13,800 on a 3-, 6- and 12-month view."